This is time-sensitive so I will keep the pitch brief. I believe that the $FIRE token by Matr1x (https://twitter.com/Matr1xOfficial) is set to deliver outsized (3-5x) return assuming it lists at 0.5-1.5 dollar around Feb 1 – Feb 5th, 2024 across DEXs and CEXs based on low float and strong fundamentals behind the pending Matr1x Fire FPS shooter launch.

First, a bit of background on what the business is. We wrote a thread + deck describing the business:(https://docsend.com/view/77zy8kbp7suixvaa

In essence, it’s a Tencent team building a high DAU mobile FPS product (typically 1-5 mm DAU). 2 years in shipping + 2 rounds of testing (last beta hitting 15k DAU & 4k peak concurrent user) shows that the product is already Web2 quality, and the game is basically in public beta (without economics ) running from Jan 29th to mid-March, with the official launch around late March (and hopefully the governance token $MAX listing around or before then). There are a few elegant reasons why we think its Web3 growth model could work -- that’s not the crux of the pitch here – but you should check out both the deck and look up the gameplay.

The situation here is interesting because its SLP (Axie) / GST (Stepn) equivalent token called $FIRE is launching within days. There’s good reason to believe that speculative + game-driven flow could drive this token meaningfully in the coming weeks.

• While total supply of $FIRE is 1 Bn, there’s really only 6.6 mm tokens (0.66%) at TGE, whereby 4.8 mm of it is held by the team for liquidity purposes. There’s effectively only 1.8 mm of float out there coming from the 1st and 2nd round of alpha testing.

• The dark OTC prices today for FIRE is 50 cents – 1 dollar. Basically a mere 1-2 mm USD circulating market cap if you count what’s held by the players. This is smaller than most microcap memecoins and NFTs and make it very susceptible to violent movements.

• The team expects 500k loot boxes (basically like chests in CSGO) to be generated during the 1st phase of gameplay (pre official launch). Every chest costs 40 FIRE token to open – a mere 10% opening rate would mean all of initial float ex-team would already be burnt.

• I don’t believe there will be material $FIRE emission during this 1.5 month period – and even if there is, a majority portion of it will be locked up w/ multiple month vesting post game launch.

So what we are looking at is a coin with almost no initial market cap, has significant sink that could lead to solid NFT gains (by opening boxes), no material emission, and is tethered to (in our opinion) one of the biggest game launches this year w/ sizable DAU potential. While I don’t know what $FIRE may do after the official launch (it really depends on the emission and sinks of the miner-equivalent NFTs), I could see it swinging violently reflecting to the favorable supply / demand dynamics in the next month.

Token is gonna be on Kucoin / MEXC / Bingx / Bitget / Bybit and also Polygon DEX.