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Notcoin

NOT

Target Name

Notcoin

Ticker

NOT

Strategy

long

Position Type

token

Current Price (USD)

-

Circulating Market Cap ($M)

-

Fully Diluted Market Cap ($M)

-

CoinGecko

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$NOT - tapping game shaping up into the best distribution channel w/ 5mn DAU at its peak trading at <1bn FDV

Cody Poh

29 May 2024, 09:19am

Overview of Notcoin

  • Notcoin is a tap to earn game which achieves virality with its simple onboarding and social elements; users could use “referral links” with friends to both receive $NOT as rewards + “squads” to create competitiveness within the same specific Telegram channel to increase stickiness

  • Notcoin achieves more user traction than any crypto application has ever seen; collectively 35mn users w/ 5mn DAU at its peak (in comparison Axie DAU peaked at 2mn / Stepn peaked at 800k DAU)

  • Notcoin also emerged as the #4 largest channel in the entire Telegram channel w/ >5mn members and 1/3 Telegram Premium users are already involved in the tapping game

  • Notcoin makes money through signing business / incubation deals with projects within the TON ecosystem; and have collectively made 3mn USDT through “redirecting” traffic + “making” projects to “acquire” / “burn” $NOT for collaboration + accepting $NOT as payment

  • Notcoin’s next phase would feature launching a new game w/ simple social mechanics in conjunction with an external game producers w/ expected timeline of 2 to 3 weeks + launching 3 projects (i.e. trading bot / questing platform / launchpad)

Investment Thesis

  • widely misunderstood by the market as a “tapping game” or “meme” - but shapes up to be a strong and effective distribution channel to the entire Telegram DAU base

    • previously channeled users to Catizen AI which has already seen >600k DAU now; and according to the team 4 more campaigns with similar commercial agreement has been lined up in the coming months

    • another way to think about the distribution channel is that - imagine >35mn users having some $NOT dust in their wallet which could effectively nudge them to try out new applications w/ usable currencies that worth some money

    • also according to the team >90% have claimed $NOT meaning they stay connected with the platform after the initial minting phase; and what’s not the unclaimed portion would be burnt after some time

  • market perception as a “reward token” without value accrual; but more “utility” / “moneyness” / “value” being attached through burning / staking / acceptance of payment method

    • $NOT being staked / held gives platinum / gold tier better benefits in the upcoming 3 products the team is launching (i.e. launchpad / trading bot / questing platform)

    • collaboration involved the burning of $NOT tokens - Catizen AI burnt 5mn $NOT / >1% of total token supply sent to TON founder which he pledged not to sell

    • moneyness as a payment method - Catizen AI / TONKeeper takes $NOT as money; which more similar treatment should happen as Notcoin scales as a distribution platform

  • most liquid token to gain exposure to the TON ecosystem which most liquid managers might have missed the run - $TON being one of the few assets that outperforms ETH / SOL YTD; partly driven by Pantera publicly underwriting the investment + only TON token listed on Binance

  • it’s also a meme!

Catalysts

  • running narrative of "low float high FDV tokens bad” - $NOT has 78% distributed to all “miners” on day one which is the exact opposite of what the market does not like

  • “meme” - meme pump $NOT pump

  • new social front end game launching - $NOT is still “reasonably valued” in my opinion given the widespread distribution it could potentially have; and the market does not have much visibility to the next phase and therefore has been pricing it that way

  • Telegram IPO - could happen early 2025

Valuation

  • leading meme on each chain trades at ~5% of the base layer’s valuation - DOGE at 23bn / SHIB at 25bn while ETH trading at 460bn; while $WIF at 3.2bn / $BONK at 3.6bn when $SOL trades at <96bn

  • if we think about the peak of legacy memecoins - $DOGE peaked at 90bn / $SHIB peaked at 70bn; and as a function of ETH’s FDV $DOGE was <20% and the latter is >13% at that moment

  • $NOT is not <3% of $TON’s FDV; and that could be 5-7x trade if $NOT emerges as the leading "memecoin” on TON blockchain if we benchmark DOGE / SHIB at their peak

Risks

  • $TON market attention currently at its peak - a function of Pantera publicly endorsing which tides could turn very quickly

  • the next game could be a flop - even the team previously shipped the tapping game and understand how social mechanics could work

  • “meme-ness” stripping away with the mentioned roadmap

Execution

  • it’s executable on Binance

Affiliate Disclosures

  • The author and/or others the author advises do not currently hold, or plan to initiate, an investment position in target.
  • The author does not hold an affiliated position with the target such as employment, directorship, or consultancy.
  • The author is not being compensated in any form by the target in relation to this research.
  • To the best of the author’s knowledge, the information provided here contains no material, non-public information. The accuracy of the information is the responsibility of the reader.

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