Notcoin
NOT
Target Name
Notcoin
Ticker
NOT
Strategy
long
Position Type
token
Current Price (USD)
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Circulating Market Cap ($M)
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Fully Diluted Market Cap ($M)
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CoinGecko
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$NOT - tapping game shaping up into the best distribution channel w/ 5mn DAU at its peak trading at <1bn FDV
29 May 2024, 09:19am
Overview of Notcoin
Notcoin is a tap to earn game which achieves virality with its simple onboarding and social elements; users could use “referral links” with friends to both receive $NOT as rewards + “squads” to create competitiveness within the same specific Telegram channel to increase stickiness
Notcoin achieves more user traction than any crypto application has ever seen; collectively 35mn users w/ 5mn DAU at its peak (in comparison Axie DAU peaked at 2mn / Stepn peaked at 800k DAU)
Notcoin also emerged as the #4 largest channel in the entire Telegram channel w/ >5mn members and 1/3 Telegram Premium users are already involved in the tapping game
Notcoin makes money through signing business / incubation deals with projects within the TON ecosystem; and have collectively made 3mn USDT through “redirecting” traffic + “making” projects to “acquire” / “burn” $NOT for collaboration + accepting $NOT as payment
Notcoin’s next phase would feature launching a new game w/ simple social mechanics in conjunction with an external game producers w/ expected timeline of 2 to 3 weeks + launching 3 projects (i.e. trading bot / questing platform / launchpad)
Investment Thesis
widely misunderstood by the market as a “tapping game” or “meme” - but shapes up to be a strong and effective distribution channel to the entire Telegram DAU base
previously channeled users to Catizen AI which has already seen >600k DAU now; and according to the team 4 more campaigns with similar commercial agreement has been lined up in the coming months
another way to think about the distribution channel is that - imagine >35mn users having some $NOT dust in their wallet which could effectively nudge them to try out new applications w/ usable currencies that worth some money
also according to the team >90% have claimed $NOT meaning they stay connected with the platform after the initial minting phase; and what’s not the unclaimed portion would be burnt after some time
market perception as a “reward token” without value accrual; but more “utility” / “moneyness” / “value” being attached through burning / staking / acceptance of payment method
$NOT being staked / held gives platinum / gold tier better benefits in the upcoming 3 products the team is launching (i.e. launchpad / trading bot / questing platform)
collaboration involved the burning of $NOT tokens - Catizen AI burnt 5mn $NOT / >1% of total token supply sent to TON founder which he pledged not to sell
moneyness as a payment method - Catizen AI / TONKeeper takes $NOT as money; which more similar treatment should happen as Notcoin scales as a distribution platform
most liquid token to gain exposure to the TON ecosystem which most liquid managers might have missed the run - $TON being one of the few assets that outperforms ETH / SOL YTD; partly driven by Pantera publicly underwriting the investment + only TON token listed on Binance
it’s also a meme!
Catalysts
running narrative of "low float high FDV tokens bad” - $NOT has 78% distributed to all “miners” on day one which is the exact opposite of what the market does not like
“meme” - meme pump $NOT pump
new social front end game launching - $NOT is still “reasonably valued” in my opinion given the widespread distribution it could potentially have; and the market does not have much visibility to the next phase and therefore has been pricing it that way
Telegram IPO - could happen early 2025
Valuation
leading meme on each chain trades at ~5% of the base layer’s valuation - DOGE at 23bn / SHIB at 25bn while ETH trading at 460bn; while $WIF at 3.2bn / $BONK at 3.6bn when $SOL trades at <96bn
if we think about the peak of legacy memecoins - $DOGE peaked at 90bn / $SHIB peaked at 70bn; and as a function of ETH’s FDV $DOGE was <20% and the latter is >13% at that moment
$NOT is not <3% of $TON’s FDV; and that could be 5-7x trade if $NOT emerges as the leading "memecoin” on TON blockchain if we benchmark DOGE / SHIB at their peak
Risks
$TON market attention currently at its peak - a function of Pantera publicly endorsing which tides could turn very quickly
the next game could be a flop - even the team previously shipped the tapping game and understand how social mechanics could work
“meme-ness” stripping away with the mentioned roadmap
Execution
it’s executable on Binance
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Hero call!