Astar Network
ASTR
Target Name
Astar Network
Ticker
ASTR
Strategy
long
Position Type
token
Current Price (USD)
0.08
Circulating Market Cap ($M)
-
Fully Diluted Market Cap ($M)
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CoinGecko
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ASTR - Wen Japan Narrative?
19 Jul 2024, 05:18pm
Overview:
What is Astar Network?
Astar Network is a L1 blockchain. It currently exists as a para-chain in the Polkadot ecosystem. TVL on the Astar Network is negligible at $29.5mn.
In 3Q23, Astar announced that it would be using the Polygon CDK to build the Astar zkEVM. The Astar zkEVM testnet went live on 22 October 2023 and its mainnet subsequently went live on 5 March 2024. Like the Astar Network L1, TVL on the zkEVM is negligible at $6mn.
Team & Investors
Astar Network was founded by Sota Watanabe. Development of the Astar Network is
driven by Astar Japan Labs and Startale Labs. Astar is currently in the midst of merging both entities together.
Astar previously raised a total of $34.4mn from the likes of Coinbase Ventures, Binance Labs, Alameda Research, GSR Investments, Polychain Capital, Crypto.com Capital, OKX Ventures, Huobi Capital, Fenbushi Capital and others.
Thesis/Narrative:
Despite the lack of significant on-chain activity on both Astar Network and the Astar
zkEVM, the Astar team is highly regarded in Japan. Astar boasts partnerships with corporates such as KDDI, NTT Docomo, Toyota and has previously co-hosted a hackathon with Mazda and Mitsubishi Estate. Astar is also building a blockchain for Sony (Sota recently joined Sony Labs as a director). Sota himself has acted as consultant for the Bank of Japan. As a result, ASTR is regarded as the main proxy for Japan Web3.
The WebX Asia on 28-29 August will act as a catalyst for ASTR. WebX Asia is Japan’s largest
annual crypto conference. It will feature Japan PM Fumio Kishida as a key speaker. Last year, Kishida commented at the same event that Web3 was a new form of capitalism. He also mentioned the metaverse. His comments acted as a strong catalyst for ASTR, which rallied +31% in the following days.
It is likely Kishida will make similarly positive comments – Japan has been re-embracing Web3, most notably through 2 consecutive years of tax reforms. Lastly, WebX Asia will mark the last of a series of crypto events in Japan. It is expected that attention will be drawn to the Web3 space in Japan during this period.
Astar will likely time an announcement around the WebX event. Sota has teased that a big announcement regarding Astar Evolution will be made around those dates. Astar Evolution refers to the merger of Astar Japan Labs and Startale Labs (both are entities which house Astar devs and overlap in function). The merger will be a 2-phase process. It is unclear what each phase will entail, but Phase 1 will take place in August 2024.
It is likely that the announcement will center on Astar’s collaboration with Sony. Astar is currently building a blockchain for Sony. Sota also recently joined Sony Labs as a Director.
This hypothesis is supported by these tweets - here and here.
ASTR has bombed out YTD. Positioning in ASTR is also very light. ASTR is generally under-tracked by the market, total OI is a mere $5.5mn and OI/MC was the lowest amongst all perps at 0.015.
Trade Strategy:
Scale into ASTR between here ($0.079) and $0.06. Hedge with a short on WLD.
Hold ASTR into the WebX event.
Alternatively, TP on the long if it trades at $0.12 pre-WebX - this level coincides with the 200DMA and also implies ~$1bn FDV.
Risks:
The WebX event is cancelled, or the Japan PM does not make positive comments regarding Web3 at the WebX event.
Astar’s announcement turns out to be immaterial.
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Affiliate Disclosures
- The author and/or others the author advises do not currently hold, or plan to initiate, an investment position in target.
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https://www.forbes.com/sites/nimrodlehavi/2024/07/22/japans-fast-and-early-approach-to-crypto-regulation-is-paying-off/
Sota Wanatabe, CEO of Startale Labs and founder of the Astar network, which already partners with Sony on the development of its own blockchain, also sees this as only the start of a developing movement:
“This development signals serious Web3 engagement from major Japanese corporations. Large companies typically need a year or two to implement such initiatives. With Web3 becoming a national policy in Japan in late 2022, we expect significant developments beyond proofs-of-concept to emerge soon.”