Overview - Helium will be one of the best performing DePIN projects over the course of this cycle for these reasons:

• Helium is in active beta trials with three Tier-1 mobile network operators. Successfully securing a partnership with one of these carriers would lead to a surge in Helium users and revenue (especially if one of the carriers turns out to be AT&T as speculated). The team has not given a timeline for the end of the beta period. Discord discussions indicate the next six months to year.

• Helium is evolving into a platform for other DePIN projects. It is currently onboarding a project and expects additional proposals soon. Onboarding new projects will increase Helium's user base and revenue while also making it an attractive platform for other DePIN projects due to immediate access to a native network of users. These initiatives will take time to materialize as they must go through the Helium governance process (estimated 4Q24/1Q25).

• Helium has demonstrated impressive growth in its mobile business, onboarding 80k users YTD and over 100k users total (Verizon and AT&T onboarded 550k new last year). Existing partnerships with T-Mobile and Telefonica highlight the team’s ability to secure non-crypto partnerships.

• DePIN as a category continues to be one of few crypto narratives that resonates with non-crypto native investors and Helium’s status as one of the leading DePIN projects with real user growth and an understandable product should make it a prime target for institutional investors.

• In the short-term (1-2 months), the major risk I see is that Helium emits 41k HNT (~$205k) and does not have consistent material HNT burns, creating ongoing supply pressure. This has not previously prevented substantial HNT price appreciation and would be mitigated by the above catalysts. 6. In the medium to long-term (3-6 months), key risks include the potential for partnerships to fall through or protocol complexity to increase from onboarding new DePIN projects. Helium's team has a strong execution record and I feel confident they can execute on their roadmap or it will quickly become apparent if they are not.

Trade Scenarios: As there are many moving parts with uncertain timelines, for now I primarily approach this as a catalyst trade focused on Helium’s announcement of formal partnerships with a large U.S. cellular provider in the coming six months. Below I have laid out three potential scenarios:

• Bull Case (25%): Helium announces a partnership with AT&T and another U.S. carrier that includes paying for mobile data, leading to a surge in Helium data usage and consistent HNT burn. One or two DePIN projects launch on Helium and gain traction equating to or exceeding its existing mobile business. In this scenario I expect HNT to return to the prior cycle’s range.

• Base Case (50%): Helium announces a partnership with a major U.S. carrier that leads to marginal growth in data consumption and user growth. Helium attracts a single DePIN project that shows promise but finds limited traction. In this scenario I expect Helium to return to this cycle’s ATH.

• Bear Case (25%): Helium fails to secure a partnership with another telecom provider following the beta and no new DePIN projects successfully launch on the platform. In this scenario I expect HNT to lose momentum and trade at current levels or below.

Helium Mobile Growth: In recent years, Helium has demonstrated impressive execution ability including:

• A technical transition that moved Helium operations from its own blockchain to Solana.

• The launch of a new subDAO framework enabling the addition of additional DePIN projects on Helium.

• The growth of its mobile network offering (which now accounts for 90% of network revenue) after initially launching with a focus on IoT.

Helium Mobile has added 80k new subscribers YTD (~385 new subscribers a day) to its $20 unlimited wireless plan and has reached 100k+ total subscribers. For reference, AT&T and Verizon added 550k new users in aggregate in 2023. So, Helium has already onboarded about 13% of the subscribers that the two largest mobile carriers added last year only halfway into 2024. 

The team has a working partnership with T-Mobile and is in the process of onboarding three other mobile carriers to test their product. The official partners have not been revealed, but discord members speculate on AT&T and GoogleFi as being the participants. As stated by the team, Helium aims to 10x aggregate data transfer (both paid and unpaid) and double the amount of paid data (as carriers in the beta have indicated they are willing to pay for specific services). Critically, these networks would offload their data to Helium rather than Helium Mobile users needing to offload data onto them (as is the case with the current T-Mobile partnership).

A sign of traction, Helium has already serviced 307,860 total subscribers from other phone networks as part of their ongoing trial. Important to note here is that this service is currently provided free of charge, resulting in no additional HNT spent on data credits. The team has already stated that if successfully onboarded, these networks would be required to burn HNT for data (as is the case currently with T-Mobile).

A new proposal just went up on August 8 that expands hotspots that are eligible to service data being offloaded from network partners. It also allows any network provider with more than 5 million users to onboard without requiring access. This reinforces the view that Helium is seeing traction with its telecom partnership initiatives and should succeed in landing additional partners. Additionally, the HIP may result in providers beginning to pay for DC as part of the beta (TBC).

Helium Mobile is also expanding internationally. In January they signed a partnership w/ Telefonica to start operating in Mexico and are already experiencing a surge in demand. Discussions in discord and recent podcasts with the founder indicate they are actively exploring expansion into other countries in the coming year. Helium’s successful Mexico expansion is both a good indication of the team’s ability to execute and grow demand in nations with less developed mobile infrastructure.

Catalysts: Helium has numerous catalysts on the horizon. Exact timing remains a mystery with only a few hints from the team:

• New Phone Carrier Partnership: Timing and exact partners unclear but it seems increasingly likely Helium will announce another major telecom provider as a partner. One of these partners is largely speculated to be AT&T. My best bet right now is that we likely see some new information presented at Breakpoint/Token 2049 with a formal partnership signed by 1Q25. In my view this is the most important catalyst on the horizon and will dictate Helium’s ability to outperform other DePINs.

• nternational Expansion: Helium founder has hinted that they are planning to launch their mobile coverage in other countries soon. The success of the Telefonica partnership in Mexico should especially spur interest from developing country phone operators that can enhance their coverage with a Helium partnership. This should have a similar effect to Helium onboarding a major US cellular provider, improving user growth and HNT burn.

• DePIN Platform for other Networks: Helium is in the process of approving through governance the onboarding of Srcful (a DePIN virtual power plant provider). The Helium founder has also hinted that they are on the verge of announcing other DePIN projects launching on them in the coming weeks. For now, these primarily benefit the Helium narrative as they are very early stage. Will need to see these projects gain actual usage and not just be onboarded for it to be a long-term positive catalyst that accrues value to HNT

• Tokenomics Update: In a recent podcast the Helium founder alluded to a proposal he is working on to update HNT tokenomics to simplify it and accrue more value to HNT. The exact mechanics or timing have not been revealed, but it is clear there’s something in the works and will be announced. Any overhaul of tokenomics that increases HNT burn will be bullish for HNT and could help address ongoing supply concerns.

Tokenomics: Helium’s primary token is HNT. HNT is (1) burned to buy data credits for users wanting to use Helium’s mobile or IoT networks (2) staked for governance voting (3) redeemable for IoT or Mobile. IoT and Mobile are incentive tokens for their respective products, and reward users that in some way provide coverage for the network.

• HNT currently inflates at a rate of 41k (~$215k) per day. Of that, 28.8k HNT (70%) is emitted to Helium network nodes and providers and 12.3k (30%) is emitted to founders and investors.

• HNT has a two-year halving schedule with the next halving scheduled for August 1, 2025.

• HNT has a “burn and mint equilibrium” model whereby any amount of HNT burned over 1643 per epoch are permanently burned. The network does not currently have consistent material burns. That could change quickly if they continue to successfully onboard additional telecom partners.

Risks:

• Underwhelming Partnerships/Failure to Materialize: While the Helium team continues to say the ongoing partnership tests are going well, also reflected in the number of non-HNT subscribers leveraging the network, it is entirely possible that these partnerships do not materialize; that they do and they underwhelm (i.e. not AT&T or Google); or that they are not announced for another year. I will continue to closely monitor team updates for any changes in tone/hints of this possibility.

• Tokenomics/Emissions: 41k HNT is emitted daily (~$205k daily, $75mn yearly). This is a major ongoing supply pressure, but as we’ve seen with the recent run-up, it has not prevented price appreciation with catalysts. In the case of a broader market downturn, however, we should exit our position immediately.

• Trading Volume: HNT only trades $10-$20mn daily on limited exchanges. This makes it difficult to enter and exit positions. However, as catalysts roll out and HNT is increasingly used to buy Helium Network Data we should begin to see HNT volumes grow.