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Provenance

HASH

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Provenance

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HASH

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The Provenance Investment Thesis ($HASH): How to Capitalize on the Trillion-Dollar Tokenization Opportunity

anon anon

14 Oct 2024, 04:38pm

This post presents the investment thesis for Provenance, a public layer 1 blockchain with $12.1bn in tokenized Real World Assets (RWA) Total Value Locked (TVL). We argue that tokenization represents a fundamental shift in financial markets, generating significant cost savings across the entire financial stack. As the tokenization market expands into a trillion-dollar opportunity, we believe Provenance (token: HASH) is uniquely positioned to capitalize on this trend. Our base case forecast projects that Provenance's market cap should reach $60 billion, representing a 30x increase from its current valuation, making HASH a top 5 crypto asset.


Written by Akrasia and Taiki Maeda

Disclosures: None of this is financial advice. Akrasia holds $HASH.


Summary

  • Tokenization is Eating Markets: Tokenization creates massive cost savings in asset securitization and trading by eliminating counterparties and back-office expenses.

  • Rapid Adoption: Cost savings serve as a forcing function for adoption. Firms that don't swiftly move onchain risk becoming uncompetitive. This simple logic means trillions of dollars of securities will be tokenized in the coming decade.

  • Market at an Inflection Point: Tokenization has been derisked and is poised for mass adoption. Standard Chartered expects tokenization to reach $30T by 2034 and Boston Consulting Group (BCG) forecasts $16T - $68T by 2030.

  • Provenance’s Market Dominance: With a TVL of $12.1bn and monthly asset addition of $650mm, Provenance is the clear market leader without any significant competitors.

  • Strong Leadership: Provenance benefits from experienced leadership, including Mike Cagney (ex-founder and CEO of SoFi) and Anthony Moro (former managing director at BNY Mellon).

  • Growing Institutional Adoption: Provenance has onboarded 15 of the top 20 mortgage providers. Major banks including Jefferies, J.P. Morgan (JPM), and Goldman Sachs have participated in rated ABS securitizations on the platform. Apollo and others have tokenized over $100mm of private funds on Provenance.

  • Undervalued Compared to Peers: Based on current TVL and growth trajectory, Provenance trades at a significant discount to peers. Ethereum, Solana, and Provenance trade at a market cap / TVL ratio of 6.5x, 13.9x, and 0.2x, respectively.

  • Upcoming Catalysts: A planned token awareness campaign and Tier 1 exchange listings will bring attention to Provenance and close the valuation gap.

“The next generation for markets, the next generation for securities, will be tokenization of securities . . . it changes the whole ecosystem." - Larry Fink, BlackRock CEO

Tokenization Background

In the coming decades, tokenization will impact a significant amount of the world’s $575T in assets. This section explains what tokenization is and why the ambitious forecasts from BCG and Standard Chartered are actually quite reasonable.

At its core, tokenization is the automation of financial assets to reduce costs and increase speed. Issuing assets natively onchain reduces back-office expenses, allows for immediate bilateral settlement, and eliminates intermediaries including trustees, custodians, clearing houses, paying agents, and auditors.

Today's asset trading involves multiple separate computer systems linked by outdated processes managed by people and technology. Every time a bond trades, the buyer, the seller, the banker, the custodians, the trustee, and the clearing house must reconcile the trade on their own separate ledgers. This process is time-consuming and riddled with human error. It also takes 2-3 days to settle.

On a blockchain, trading is instant, cheap, and without intermediaries. This is the reason every asset on earth will be tokenized. It’s cheaper.

Natively onchain assets offer full programmability, a shared source of truth, instantaneous bilateral trading, and 24x7 liquidity. This is a new operating system for financial markets, comparable to the shift from paper to digital.

The efficiencies of tokenization are not theoretical. Tokenization is being implemented at scale to generate significant cost savings in securitization, asset management, and trading. The case study below highlights the benefits on a HELOC (home equity line of credit) mortgage securitization.


Case Study: HELOC Securitization on Provenance

In 2020, Figure originated a $150mm HELOC Asset-Backed Security (ABS) onchain and published a case study on the benefits of this tokenization. The results were striking: using Provenance generated 117 basis points of cost savings over traditional methods.

Origination (23bps): Borrowers first submit a loan application through Figure’s origination platform. This application and third-party data (FICO, income, property valuation) is cryptographically signed and hashed onchain. Then, the underwriter creates an offer and submits the relevant documents on Provenance. If the borrower accepts, the loan will be funded through smart contracts that trigger fiat bank payment. The loan data is securely stored and verifiable on Provenance. This makes origination faster, eliminates manual quality control steps, and generates verifiably true data about the loan directly onchain.

Servicing (26bps): Mortgages require a servicer to ensure loan payment, manage principal amortization, and reconcile data across multiple databases. The process takes place over a 30-day remittance cycle. On Provenance, the process is instant through smart contracts. This creates massive capital efficiencies and allows for real-time loan monitoring.

Financing (45bps): In the securitization process, warehouses are facilities that store loans until they are ready to be securitized. Jeffries deployed a warehouse on Provenance with terms encoded in smart contracts. Any loan that meets predetermined terms (credit score, income, size) will be automatically purchased by the warehouse without any human intervention. Using onchain data certified during origination precludes the need for expensive manual audits which can be up to $400 per loan. The process on Provenance is capital efficient and offers instant settlement without a custodian or clearing agent.

Securitization (23bps): Finally, the HELOCs are packaged into an asset-backed security. Provenance automates diligence of the loans in the ABS and performs the operational responsibilities of the trustee, paying agent, and other intermediaries.


To summarize, tokenization reduces intermediaries, back office overhead, and transaction times. This is extremely impactful. Extrapolated across the $3T annual securitization market, 117bps represents $35bn in annual savings. Tradfi’s margin is Provenance’s opportunity.

The results speak for themselves. Provenance’s HELOC TVL has grown by 4.4% per month since 01/01/23 to reach $8.5bn as of 10/01/24.

note that HELOC TVL does not increase by the monthly amount of securitizations due to principal repayments on existing loans.

As market participants begin to understand the benefits of tokenization, it becomes not a question of if assets will be tokenized, but when and how. We believe the answer is very soon and on Provenance. Below we outline the major players in the Provenance ecosystem, explain why Provenance is best positioned to capitalize on this opportunity, and present the risks to our thesis.

The Provenance Ecosystem

In 2018, Mike Cagney, the former founder and CEO of SoFi, saw the transformative power of tokenization. To capitalize on the opportunity, he built Figure, which incubated Provenance. The two entities were designed from the ground up to manage the entire asset securitization and trading lifecycle.

Today, the ecosystem has expanded to include several key entities:

Provenance Blockchain

Provenance is a public, proof-of-stake, Cosmos appchain with $12.1bn in tokenized RWA TVL. It serves as a ledger, registry, and exchange for assets. The chain was designed from the ground up to handle regulated financial services. Provenance has 4 second block times and can handle 10mm settlement transactions per day.

Provenance is fully public and permissionless. Anyone can use the chain or issue an asset onchain however, all smart contracts require a governance vote. This design choice was made to focus on financial services and prevent congestion from transactions related to other activity like memecoins or gaming. While not anyone can deploy a smart contract, asset tokenization and market creation is permissionless through built-in modules. These modules cover the entire securitization process, including asset minting, document storage and verification, identity verification, group management, and bilateral trading.

For users seeking a private solution, Provenance offers ProvZones. These are fully private instances of the Provenance tech stack which can then be connected back to the base chain as needed. This allows for all the benefits of a private ledger with the ability to connect to the liquidity of the broader ecosystem. A ProvZone was used in Provenance’s Project Guardian proof of concept in partnership with J.P. Morgan, Apollo, Avalanche, and the Monetary Authority of Singapore.

Provenance’s native token is HASH. HASH has a fixed supply of 100bn tokens and is used for gas, staking, and governance. 11.3% of tokens are currently staked across 63 validators. 93% of transaction fees go to validators and 7% go to the PBF to support the Provenance ecosystem and development. HASH holders can stake with any validator of their choosing. The minimum validator fee is currently set to 5%, which implies 88% of transaction fees are returned directly to HASH holders.

Provenance is currently home to $8.5bn in HELOCs, $2-3bn in equity, over $100mm of tokenized private equity from Apollo and others, $191mm of life insurance policies, and tens of millions in other funds including a Figure REIT. This growth has generated steadily increasing fee revenue.

Provenance Blockchain Foundation (PBF)

The Provenance Blockchain Foundation is a non-profit organization that manages, supports, and funds the Provenance ecosystem. To ensure ongoing support, 7% of all transaction fees are directed to the PBF. The Foundation is led by June Ou, co-founder of Figure and former VP at SoFi.

Provenance Labs (ProvLabs)

Provenance Labs, which spun out of the PBF earlier this year, is a SaaS (Software as a Service) company built to help financial firms navigate the transition to a tokenized world. ProvLabs will use the technology and lessons learned from Figure’s securitization process to onboard the next wave of assets to Provenance. The company offers cloud solutions for custom ProvZones, an asset management platform, a premium block explorer, APIs, and enterprise tech support.

ProvLabs is led by CEO Anthony Moro, who was previously the CEO of the PBF and Managing Director at BNY Mellon. The CTO of ProvLabs is Ira Miller, who previously worked on distributed systems at the Stanford Research Institute and has been the primary architect behind the Provenance blockchain since 2018.

Figure Technologies Solutions (FTS)

Figure Technologies Solutions originates HELOC mortgages directly from consumers through figure.com and provides a platform for third-party originators. Today, third-party originators account for approximately half of the HELOC TVL on Provenance. In July, FTS originated ~$650mm in HELOCs, 15% of all HELOC transactions nationwide. Mike Cagney expects this total to rise to $1bn a month by year end.

The CEO of FTS is Michael Tannenbaum, who was formerly the CFO and COO of Brex, and Chief Revenue Officer at SoFi. FTS has filed an S-1 in preparation for an IPO led by Goldman, JPM, and Jefferies. The IPO date is yet to be announced.

In addition to a mortgage origination platform, FTS has two subdivisions with the potential to further disrupt the mortgage industry: DART and Figure Connect. DART (Digital Asset Registration Technologies) is a mortgage registry system that offers enhanced ownership transparency and real-time settlement for investors compared to MERS, the dominant US mortgage registry system. Figure Connect is a financial platform aimed at mimicking the role of Fannie and Freddie in non-qualified mortgages. This addresses challenges in selling mortgages like HELOCs, non-qualified mortgages, and prime jumbo mortgages. Figure Connect is in the early stages but represents a promising opportunity to expand tokenization in the the US mortgage market, the second largest market in the world.

Figure Markets

Figure Markets is a non-custodial exchange for both retail and institutional users. The exchange recently raised $60mm from notable investors Jump, Pantera, Distributed Global, Lightspeed Faction, Ribbit, and others. Figure is a FINRA-approved broker-dealer and SEC-registered Alternative Trading System (ATS) which plans to offer trading in a wide variety of assets on a decentralized exchange with an offchain orderbook and an MPC wallet solution for secure asset management. Think FTX without the fraud.

Mike Cagney serves as the CEO of Figure Markets, with advisors including former SEC Chairman Arthur Levitt, former FDIC Chairwoman Sheila Bair, and former Digital Asset CEO Blythe Masters. While currently in beta, Figure Markets has ambitious plans to roll out innovative products in 2024-2025:

  • Spot Trading is already live for crypto and will soon include fx, stocks, and stock indices. Figure currently offers 5:1 cross-collateralized spot leverage at a 6% margin rate (the best rate on the market).

  • Periodic Cap Settle Futures offer an improved version of perpetual futures which offer hourly settlement of unrealized PnL, lower funding rates, and less risk for the exchange.

  • Democratized Prime is a limit order book for stablecoin lending which will allow users to earn attractive yields while funding leveraged traders.

  • YLDS is a yield-bearing stablecoin that can be transferred peer-to-peer. It is currently awaiting SEC approval. Figure believes this product is a category killer due to its yield and legal perfection of asset ownership. As a yield-bearing stablecoin that is also a security under US law, it could be held by banks and traditional financial firms, potentially catalyzing the next wave of onboarding.

  • Asset management solutions with unique financial products not otherwise available to retail investors. Figure has already stood up markets to trade locked Solana, FTX claims, and a HELOC REIT.

  • Bonuses for early adopters may include a Figure Markets equity airdrop and reduced fees for HASH holders.

Check out Figure Markets for yourself here.

Figure Asset Corp

Figure Asset Corp is a privately held corporation owned by the same investors who own the other Figure entities. FAC holds 57.7% of all outstanding HASH. It is controlled by a Board of Directors including Mike Cagney and June Ou. HASH tokens held by the corporation were used to seed ProvLabs and may in the future be used for market making activities or funding other ecosystem initiatives.

Infineo

Infineo is tokenizing life insurance policies on Provenance. The company reached a TVL of $191mm in just four months. Infineo is now the fastest growing real world asset product in all of crypto.

Infineo is also notable because it is an independent business, not a Figure spinout. This highlights market demand for tokenization on Provenance. If Figure’s HELOC product was a zero to one moment for tokenization, Infineo’s life insurance product shows that we are now in the one to infinity stage. Provenance is the dominant tokenization solution and other asset classes will be coming onchain soon.

Investment Thesis

The thesis for why HASH is a $60bn asset hinges on a few key fundamental truths. (1) Tokenization is a technological revolution. (2) Provenance’s solution is years ahead of peers. (3) Provenance has a strong moat. (4) Catalysts will unlock HASH’s true value.

(1) Tokenization is a technological revolution

As described in the opening section on tokenization, the efficiencies of tokenization are so great that it makes sense to tokenize every asset on the planet. Provenance’s HELOC TVL is growing at a rate of 4.4% per month since 2023 (68% annualized). This is a clear inflection point in the S-curve of tokenization adoption.

Over the next decades, tokenization will sweep through markets. BCG estimates $16T of tokenized assets by 2030 in their conservative forecast and $68T in their best-case scenario. Standard Chartered expects $30T of tokenized assets by 2034.

(2) Provenance’s solution is years ahead of peers

Provenance has done the hard work of simplifying a complex financial, regulatory, and technological securitization process into infrastructure ready for mass adoption.

In terms of TVL, Provenance’s next closest competitors are BlackRock, Franklin Templeton, and Ondo with between $400mm-$500mm in treasuries each. Looking only at private credit competitors, Centrifuge, Maple, Goldfinch, TrueFi, and Credix have just $400mm in combined TVL. Provenance added $480mm in TVL in September alone. There is no second best.

The underlying driver of Provenance’s success is its superior tokenization platform. The majority of tokenization today falls short of achieving the full promise of blockchain because the assets are not digitally native. Most private credit and treasury providers are creating digital twins of assets that exist offchain. This adds redundancies and increases costs, making a blockchain more expensive. Additionally, the assets are not legally perfected and the protocol you’re interacting with may be your uninsured counterparty.

Provenance is the only player in the RWA space with proven cost-savings on a battle-tested platform.

(3) Provenance has a strong moat

The vast majority of today’s blockspace is a commodity. This means that no base chain can command a significant premium on their blockspace. There are virtually no practical differences between deploying on Optimism vs Arbitrum vs Polygon. Most importantly, once an app achieves any level of success, they are incentivized to leave their base chain and become an appchain (e.g., Uniswap, Hyperliquid, and MakerDAO). The exception to this rule is for differentiated blockspace. This is exactly what Provenance offers.

Provenance has an unforkable origination platform, regulatory moat, and social network. It would take a competitor years to create a similar chain with the proper tech, regulatory approvals, and ecosystem. This means Provenance has app and user lock-in that other platforms don’t. User lock-in is important for growth but also for value capture. When apps and users have no other place to go, they have to stay when fees increase. Provenance has the pricing power to extract meaningful fees which drive value to HASH.

(4) Catalysts will unlock HASH’s true value

The final piece of the puzzle is a catalyst for the market to reprice HASH to its fair value.

Today, HASH is available for purchase in small amounts on Figure Markets and Osmosis. However, in 1Q25, the PBF plans to deliver Tier 1 exchange listings, market maker partnerships, and a ‘Solana-level marketing campaign.’ Provenance is for all intents and purposes coming out of stealth and welcoming the world to tokenize trillions of dollars of assets on their chain.

Risks

HASH Value Accrual

Risk: The Provenance ecosystem is dominated by Figure. While Figure’s financial statements are not publicly available, Figure likely earns significantly more than Provenance. This mirrors a common pattern in crypto where the private company behind a protocol earns the bulk of the fees while distributing little to token holders (e.g., DYDX, UNI, LIDO, JUP). There is a possibility that here too, a misalignment of incentives will direct profits away from HASH.

Mitigant: Currently, 98.1% of transactions on Provenance are metadata transactions related to asset tokenization and management. Very little trading volume occurs on Provenance. As more assets are brought onchain and Figure Markets launches, transactions on Provenance will increase, driving value to HASH.

While trading fees are likely to pick up significantly, it's worth noting that trading fees per dollar of TVL will likely be lower than on other chains due to the slower velocity of trading in fixed income securities vs crypto. In 2023, SIFMA data indicates a 2.6x trading volume / market cap ratio for fixed income securities (MBS, corporates, agencies, and munis). In contrast, Coingecko shows a 10.2x ratio for Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana over the last year. While this means lower turnover, on an absolute basis, fixed income markets in the US alone traded $77.9T in 2023 while crypto traded $15.8T over the last year, highlighting the difference in scale of Provenance’s target market compared to the crypto market.

HASH Ownership

Risk: Figure Asset Corp, and the PBF hold 57.7% and 5.6% of tokens, respectively, with only 36.7% in circulation. All HASH tokens are fully liquid and can be sold at any time.

Mitigant: Figure Asset Corp is governed by the same stakeholders as Figure Tech, including Mike Cagney and June Ou. FAC Management has stated intentions to divest a large portion of tokens back to the PBF, issue a HASH dividend to FAC shareholders, and divest to ecosystem participants. The HASH will also likely be used to support market making and incentivize new signups to Figure Markets.

This risk requires ongoing monitoring. That said, it seems likely that management did not spend 6 years painstakingly navigating regulations, new tech, and financial markets to tokenize billions of dollars of assets just for a quick exit. Figure understands the value of what they’re building and public statements indicate they are unlikely to sell HASH before it fully matures.

Regulation

Risk: Actions by regulatory agencies (SEC, FINRA, Fed, OFAC, etc.) could potentially damage Provenance's position as the dominant RWA chain.

Mitigant: Provenance and Figure take a proactive approach to regulation, having already gained approval as an ATS, a FINRA broker-dealer, and an asset registry. Their "ask permission first" approach, while slower, ensures regulatory compliance.

UX / Security:

Risk: There's a widespread belief that traditional financial firms won't adopt blockchains due to poor user experience and risks associated with managing private keys.

Mitigant: The user experience of listing and trading assets on blockchain is improving rapidly and in some cases already surpasses traditional financial systems. Security solutions like MPC wallets through Fireblocks or Anchorage provide strong security guarantees, addressing key management concerns.

Distributed Ledger Technology (DLT) Competition:

Risk: Provenance faces competition from major traditional finance players developing their own DLT solutions:

  • Broadridge’s intraday repo DLT has primary dealers trading $50bn per day.

  • Onyx, J.P. Morgan’s repo blockchain solution, has processed $700bn.

  • Baton Systems’ DLT processes $15-20bn per day in the FX derivatives market.

  • Depository Trust & Clearing Corporation (DTCC), the leading post-trade market infrastructure, is processing over 100k equity transactions per day on their DLT.

Mitigant: There is an ongoing debate over whether the future of tokenization is in walled gardens or on public chains. In a walled garden world, each bank, exchange, and fintech creates their own chain. Each chain would have it’s own language, token standard, and legal structure. Investors would be forced to navigate this web of networks to purchase and manage assets. Additionally, JPM is not incentivized to use Goldman’s network, Goldman is not incentivized to use Citi’s network, and so on.

As a neutral public layer, Provenance solves this coordination issue. In addition, Provenance offers private zones which can be connected to the main chain. This allows for the proliferation of one token standard and the unification of walled gardens. For this reason, tokenizing assets on a public chain appears more likely but the future is path dependent.

Market for HASH

Risk: There is limited liquidity (<$20k) for HASH on Osmosis and Figure Markets.

Mitigant: HASH is hard to purchase by design. Limited amounts were made available for purchase only so that developers and customers could use the chain but there was never an attempt to cultivate buyers. Fortunately, this is about to change. In 1Q25, the PBF plans to deliver Tier 1 exchange listings, market maker partnerships, and a ‘Solana-level marketing campaign.’ These catalysts should drive token liquidity.

Model

Now for the grand finale. This section outlines the path for Provenance to reach a $60 billion valuation. We'll present our key assumptions and the rationale behind them.

Assumptions

The path to $60bn ( 2/3 of Solana’s FDV) relies on the following:

  • Global Asset Growth Rate: We assume the world’s $575T in financial assets will continue to grow at a conservative 3% rate.

  • Tokenization Adoption Growth Rate: Figure is growing it’s HELOC TVL at 68% per year. In our base case, we assume that as competitors come online, there is room for acceleration to 80% per year. For context, the tokenization market can continue to grow at 80% per year for the next 15 years and still only reach a 9.8% market penetration rate. This assumption is conservative when compared to BCG $16T - $68T forecast by 2030 (model assumes $0.6T) and Standard Chartered’s $30T forecast by 2034 (model assumes $7.2T).

  • Provenance Market Share Decline Rate: While Provenance is the dominant RWA platform today, it is reasonable to believe that they will eventually have competition. The model assumes Provenance’s market share will drop from nearly 80% to 36% over the next 15 years. This assumption was made to increase conservatism and is supported by the fact that many similar industries with large economies of scale tend towards oligopoly.

    • Credit Card Transactions: Visa, Mastercard, and Amex control 96% of market.

    • Shipping: USPS, Amazon, UPS, and FedEx control 97% of the market.

    • Crypto: Binance, Bybit, Coinbase and OKX handle 75% of spot trading.

    • Banking Deposits: Top Ten Banks control 56% of the market.

  • Management Fees: At present, 98.1% of transactions on Provenance are ‘metadata’ transactions. These transactions are part of the asset securitization and management process. Ascribing the $6k daily fees that Provenance generates to management of it’s $12.1bn of TVL indicates a 0.018% TVL Management Fee take rate.

  • Trading Fees: Provenance generates very few trading fees today. As Figure Markets ramps up and more institutions are onboarded to the platform, we believe this will increase materially. Based on SIFMA data for fixed income markets, the model assumes a 2.6x annual turnover rate of all assets on the chain. Additionally, the model assumes a 0.005% take rate on traded volume. This is lower than tradfi peers. NASDAQ has a 0.006% take rate while Market Axess, a fixed income trading platform, has a 0.02% take rate.

  • Discount Rate: A 20% discount rate reflects a venture capital investment with proven product-market fit but remaining uncertainties.

Based on these assumptions and sensitivity analysis, we arrive at the following valuations:

  • Bear Case: $10bn (5x)

  • Base Case: $62bn (31x)

  • Bull Case: $150bn (75x)

Conclusion

Tokenization is eating markets. Provenance has done the hard work of simplifying a complex financial, regulatory, and technological securitization process into a simple infrastructure ready for mass adoption. While there is still much work to do, there is a clear path to onboard trillions of dollars of assets in the next decade.

From an investing perspective, we are at the moment of peak opportunity in which the best fundamental story in all of crypto will start to be told to a market eager for real narratives. Provenance is currently trading at an extreme discount but as catalysts unfold and the fundamentals continue to improve, HASH will rapidly reprice to become a $60bn token and a top 5 chain by market cap.

Affiliate Disclosures

  • The author and/or others the author advises do not currently hold, or plan to initiate, an investment position in target.
  • The author does not hold an affiliated position with the target such as employment, directorship, or consultancy.
  • The author is not being compensated in any form by the target in relation to this research.
  • To the best of the author’s knowledge, the information provided here contains no material, non-public information. The accuracy of the information is the responsibility of the reader.

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